IPL Retention Preview | Most pieces in place for Mumbai Indians but Chahar and Ghazanfar under threat

‌No team has made winning a habit in the Indian Premier League like the Mumbai Indians since their first triumph in 2013. Four more titles followed in the next seven years, but a transitory period has seen the team go without a trophy for five years straight, equalling their longest streak. The dynasty hit rock bottom in 2022 with a maiden wooden spoon finish before repeating the misfortune two years later, and 2025 seemed to be headed no differently when they lost three of the first four matches. However, a resplendent six-match winning streak powered the team to just their second playoff appearance during the ongoing drought, where they were finally outdone by a formidable Punjab Kings in Qualifier 2. The resurgence had enough flashes of indomitable MI teams of the past, especially for a unit at the beginning of a three-year cycle following a mega auction, hallmarked by a core of Indian stalwarts that were all retained for big money. All that has left the team quietly comfortable amidst the humdrum of commotion in the trade market, but a management that has proven itself to be consistently ahead of the game will patently be looking for upgrades wherever possible. That outlook may come with potential risks of its own, as an attempt at trying to fix what isn't broken for the sake of it has spelled the downfall of several franchises in the past.

On the chopping block: Deepak Chahar, Allah Ghazanfar, Will Jacks

The first measure any sound financial organization takes to improve its fundamental health is to dispose of substantial non-performing assets. The IPL gives teams the luxury of doing so without enduring any depreciation, since players are released at the price they were retained for or bought at the auction. For Mumbai Indians, such an endeavour might result in three flashing names -- Deepak Chahar (9.25 cr), Allah Ghazanfar (4.8 cr), and Will Jacks (5.25 cr). Let's have a look at the three names in isolation before trying to fit them in the bigger auction picture.

Chahar was bought for a hefty fee, given that Wankhede offers the highest amounts of swing amongst all regular IPL venues, and the right-arm pacer is regarded as one of the most potent new-ball bowlers going around the country. However, Chahar's numbers for the season failed to back up the theory, as he managed just eight powerplay wickets in 13 outings despite bowling nearly 80% of his overs during this phase. Even so, an auction is all about building a whole greater than its sum, and Chahar's pairing with Trent Boult and Jasprit Bumrah meant Mumbai ended IPL 2025 with the second most powerplay wickets. Chahar also proved capable in restraining teams early, his economy of 8.67 at par with Boult (8.60) and not too far from Bumrah (8.20) either. 

Will Jacks is the next name on the list, after a subpar season with the bat saw him end with just 233 runs at a strike rate of 135.46. The Englishman managed a solitary half-century but retained his place in the team after impressing with the ball, capitalizing on the drift available at the Wankhede to bag six wickets at a neat economy of 8.57. While that may not be enough to justify his place in the team, Jacks has proven in the past that he can win games singlehandedly (like the 41-ball ton for RCB) and provides a handy extra bowling option in a league where runs are becoming increasingly difficult to contain. Moreover, a stacked middle-order of Suryakumar Yadav, Tilak Varma, Hardik Pandya, and Naman Dhir, with Rohit Sharma and Ryan Rickelton to come before means Jacks can almost be used as a pinch hitter carrying the license to kill, similar to what a Cameron Green did two years ago. Jacks gives impact over consistency, and it is apparent which of the two currencies T20 cricket deals in.

Allah Ghazanfar raised eyebrows at IPL 2025 after being made a crorepati without having even made his T20I debut for Afghanistan, after a sensational start to his ODI career. However, the mystery spinner was injured before the season began and was replaced by compatriot Mujeeb Ur Rahman (2 cr), who struggled for impact and gametime. Ghazanfar since has impressed in the Vitality Blast and Caribbean Premier League, but even without him, MI was the only team to take over 50 wickets in the middle overs last year (57) and had the best economy in the phase (8.69). Mitchell Santner  (2 cr) embraced the role of frontline spinner with aplomb, combining with Pandya and Bumrah for 26 of those wickets while the likes of Vignesh Puthur, Karn Sharma, Ashwani Kumar, and Jacks all delivered when called up to the mound. 

The only other players not mentioned yet who were bought for over a crore are Naman Dhir (5.25 crore) and Ryan Rickelton (1 crore). While the former is a long-term Mumbai project and arguably a bargain considering his potential, Rickelton wields the gloves for the team and is unlikely to prick Mumbai given his price tag.

The bigger picture: maintain status quo or go for broke?

Mumbai Indians can look at the season gone by with two lenses -- as the near-unbeatable team once their best players picked up form, or the staggering unit at season-start with deficiencies in all departments. If they take the first option, the team can stay content with just minor releases and strengthen their bench with the spare change they manage to aggregate. 

In the past, Mumbai have preferred the conservative route, although the dictum might be a direct result of continued success. In the last mini-auction, the Indians entered with the smallest purse of 17.75 crores, albeit they had already acquired Hardik Pandya in a blockbuster trade. The auction before had also seen Kolkata Knight Riders enter with a seven crore purse despite finishing seventh the previous season, and ended up lifting their third IPL. Thus, there's clearly a precedent of teams doing well without any major business in mini-auctions. Besides, the MI team last year was fresh off a captaincy musical chairs saga as well as a mega auction, so the side was never expected to click straightaway.

Taking the second route, though, is potentially more rewarding and consequently, riskier. Mini-auctions invariably lead to inflated prices for players, which adds further risk to releasing big names, given both the released player and the targeted replacement(s) might end up out of budget. These events are also more often than not thinner with options, given most teams already have largely settled units after a mega auction featuring all the prominent names. IPL's recent crackdown on foreigners missing mega auctions in lieu of more lucrative deals in the mini auctions has only exacerbated the issue further, with barely any A-listers finding themselves without a team this season. For example, releasing Chahar for 9.25 crores may feel like a no-brainer in isolation, but MI also needs to consider whether they can use the freed-up amount to upgrade in the market. There's no use for cash in a barter world with limited resources, and MI will need to exercise pragmatism. Big names like Cameron Green may be up for grabs, but with several teams looking for major overhauls, auction dynamics would likely leave MI little chance of acquiring a marquee pick even if they let go of all three names in the previous section for a combined 19.3 crores.

If MI are to head into the auction right now with practically no purse to speak of, they could still field practically the same lineup as last year, with Rickelton, Jacks, Santner, and Boult as the foreign picks while Vignesh Puthur serves as the strike spinner. He is the only unproven player in that setup, but it is not always a bad thing to have a spinner other teams haven't seen much of. A part of the exclusive left-arm wristy club, Puthur already showed he has the minerals for the big occasion with a match-winning performance against arch-rivals Chennai Super Kings. Besides, Mumbai have historically backed its young cadre, direct results of which are Pandya, Bumrah, Varma, and Dhir amongst others.

Potential targets

To make the go-broke option even remotely worth considering, Mumbai needs to have a lineup of replacements ready to fill those slots. The team has to let go off Chahar and Ghazanfar at the very least in such a scenario to stitch a respectable purse, which would leave them needing a new-ball operator and possibly a spinner. 

As for the pacers, perhaps the leading option available is fresher Auqib Nabi following a successful couple of seasons with Jammu and Kashmir in domestic cricket. The likes of Tushar Deshpande, Mohammed Shami, Rasikh Dar, Akash Deep, Vijaykumar Vyshak, Umran Malik, and T Natarajan might also become available depending on how other teams go about their retentions. The first two would likely be at the top of the want list for their proficiency with the new ball and ability to deliver powerplay wickets.

The list becomes much thinner when it comes to the spinners. Adil Rashid is as always waiting in the wild, while Adam Zampa and Moeen Ali are the other two names that might possibly be released by their respective teams. Other potential options include Mayank Markande, Manav Suthar, Karn Sharma, and Tanush Kotian, none of whom have even the limited international pedigree of Ghazanfar or the X-factor provided by Puthur.

Will Jacks is perhaps the only prudent release choice from the point of view of options in the market with Liam Livingstone and Glenn Maxwell both expected to be released by their teams and can offer overs with the ball, while Matt Short is currently without a franchise. Jamie Smith, Ben Duckett, Tim Seifert, Sam Billings, and Alex Carey are the other highly regarded foreign batters who went unsold last year or were not a part of the auction in the first place.

Possible Mumbai XII: 1 Rohit Sharma 2 Ryan Rickelton* 3 Will Jacks* 4 Suryakumar Yadav 5 Tilak Varma 6 Hardik Pandya 7 Naman Dhir 8 Mitchell Santner* 9 Deepak Chahar 10 Trent Boult* 11 Jasprit Bumrah 12 Vignesh Puthur